Prediction of COVID-19 cases and location-allocation optimization model for bases and ambulances considering vulnerability factors

Abstract

This work addresses the problem of strategic location of bases and ambulances, considering the number of inhabitants and a vulnerability weight, confirmed by socioeconomic and epidemiological elements. A generalized linear model (GLM) is used to predict COVID-19 cases at the communal level, and a mathematical optimization model for location and allocation maximizes population care coverage. The methodology is applied in Chile's Metropolitan Region, analyzing the current situation of the Emergency Medical Attention Service (SAMU). Results show consistent projection for one week of study and acceptable computation times for the reallocation of ambulances and bases.