Methodology for forecasting planning indicators in the sugar refinery industry: application

Abstract

This article aims to apply a methodology for forecasting relevant planning indicators in the Cuban sugar refinery industry. Nowadays, conventional planning methods are used, which limit the use of planning as a scientifically argued instrument for efficient decision-making. In the proposed methodology, quantitative and statistical forecasting methods and models are used to complement the short-term planning process, providing techniques to estimate and verify the validity of the weekly industrial lost time trend, the seasonal variation indexes, and the multiple regression models of industrial performance. Based on the seasonal variation indexes, the weekly forecast of industrial lost time, the cane plan to be processed, and the sugar production plan are made. The obtained forecasts allowed weekly production scheduling and efficient planning to better utilize industrial capacities. The validated procedure is an effective tool that contributes to the improvement and foundation of the current planning process in the sugar refinery industry, allowing the integrated projection of relevant production and efficiency indicators in the economic plan.